2008 Arlington Real Estate Market Snapshot - Recession? What Recession?

A friend brought a recent Fortune article to my attention, titled "Top 10 Worst Real Estate Markets for 2009." To my utter surprise, #10 was Washington, D.C. He followed this link with "Do you agree?"

My answer is short, but sweet - No. As a matter of fact, (excuse my language) Hell No.

Although I made a plea for everyone to stop reading the newspaper about real estate, I know it's likely to happen. I myself also read the paper...from what I am reading, Arlington and the District seem to be labeled as nearly "Recession-Proof." Or at least one of the best places to live during a recession. So being the economist and statistician that I am, I took my local zip code in Arlington to compare numbers from 2007 and 2008. Take a look below:

Single Family Homes in the Zip Code 22201
Neighborhoods: Lyon Park, Lyon Village, Clarendon, Ashton Heights, etc.

Compare January - June

2007:
40 Properties Sold
Average Sale Price: $885k (not including any seller subsidies)
Range: $505k to $2.2M
Average Day on the Market: 106

2008:
28 Properties Sold
Average Sale Price: $906k (not including any seller subsidies)
Range: $470k to $1.6M
Average Days on the Market: 62

That's a 2.4% INCREASE in the average SOLD price....it's also selling faster, nearly 1/2 the time from 2007

Now Compare July - December

2007:
60 Properties Sold
Average Sale Price: $986k (not including any seller subsidies)
Range: $412 to $1.6M
Average Day on the Market: 104

2008 (YTD):
32 Properties Sold (3 more currently under contract)
Average Sale Price: $907k (not including any seller subsidies)
Range: $507k to $1.5M
Average Days on the Market: 86

With the last 6 months of the year, we see 2008 still has properties selling faster than 2007. While we can't firmly compare prices until December is done, as of this writing, prices dropped about 8% from this time last year.

I can't say that I see a HUGE neon blinking sign that says "run away, run fast" for the local market. I think once we get past the holidays and our new President begins his economic stimulus plan - you should see consumer confidence increase and these numbers will all even out. Our local supply of homes is less than this time year, and with rates as low at they are....I can't imagine HOW D.C. made that horrible Top 10 list.